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Will China Be the Next Financial Shock?
In the world economy, the inexorable rise of China has arguably been the most important trend of recent decades. China is now the number two economy in the world and it will be number one in ten or...
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Is Google the New Apple?
Google is definitely not just a search engine. It has had amazing success with its Android phone and its latest project – Glass – is doing what Apple’s iPhone and iPad used to do: generating a lot of...
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Why Consultants Are Not Expensive
Are consultants expensive? There are two points of view here: Yes, consultants are expensive, because if you don’t understand the value a consultant can give or how to profit from a consultant, then...
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Why Does the UK Never Run a Trade Surplus?
A vast number of shipping containers come in to UK ports each year carrying goods, but a sizeable proportion of them leave again empty, transporting nothing but fresh air. This sounds bad but, in...
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Why the Fed will be Dovish Forever
Five central banks meet during the first week of March, with no change in rates expected but perhaps a rousing comment or two. The Fed doesn’t meet until 19-20th March amid talk that the policy...
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A Radical Alternative to Monetary Policy, Fiscal Stimulus and Austerity
The economy is stagnant, with GDP barely higher than it was after the deep recession of 2008–2009, and we seem to have run out of good options for fixing it. It is well-known that conventional monetary...
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Economic Growth in Africa – It Is Different This Time
It is a fact that Africa has lately been on the radar screens of international media and news services, hogging many columns of commentary and being allocated prodigious airtime at conferences and on...
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Bulls Beware – Bear Market to Bite Back in 2013
With equity markets close to multi-year highs once again, there is a temptation to think that the recent turmoil is behind us and that we are once again in the midst of a bull market in stocks. Kerry...
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How events in Cyprus will boost Europe
The decision at the weekend to enforce losses of 40% on customers of Cyprus’ Laiki (Popular) Bank if they had deposits over €100,000 has caused outrage in the media on both sides of the Atlantic....
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Seeing the Woods for the trees
The Battle of Bretton Woods by Benn Steil (Princeton University Press, 2013) The G20 meeting takes place right ahead of the semi-annual IMF and World Bank meetings in Washington on 20 April. This was...
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The hidden operational risks in banking M&A
Bank consolidation continues. For the acquirer (and regulator), much risk is faced. Yet, the source and amount of that risk are often not well understood, which increases the risk. What risks...
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Swimming naked in the BRICS – Why Emerging Markets are Struggling
It doesn’t happen often, but the UK is out-performing the BRICS, the fast-growing emerging market nations of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. OK, maybe not in nominal terms, but the...
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Do summertime markets really exist?
Usually around this time of year the City of London tends to get quiet. The queues at the sandwich bars are shorter than normal, you might get a seat on the tube home at 6pm and you may decide to take...
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Why financial markets are complex… Not complicated
How can we best describe financial markets? Perhaps in technical terms, as efficient exchanges of credit, assets and liabilities, etc. Or in more human terms as huge engines of emotion, herd behaviour...
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Syrian crisis reveals essential system of global checks and balances
The last week has highlighted the enormous cultural differences between the US and the UK. After the UK parliament voted against military action in Syria in retaliation for President Assad’s alleged...
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Do retail traders really stand a chance?
A few events over the last few weeks may have had retail traders scratching their heads and wondering if it is worth a small fish trading at all. Firstly, after last month’s FOMC decision the Fed...
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Can South Korea press the reset button on its economy?
Texans of Asia A Wall Street Journal reporter once described South Koreans as the “Texans of Asia.” The South Koreans have been justifiably proud of their economic accomplishments so far. They have...
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Is there any hope for Russia?
Crimea Russia’s recent annexation of Crimea has sent it’s under-performing economy and stock market into a tailspin. From the halcyon days of spring 2008, the Russian stock market has lost more than...
View ArticleIndia: The Great Election Hope Trick
Election fever The world’s largest democracy goes to the polls this month. The collective wisdom of 800 million people is likely to produce an outcome that could have huge implications for the global...
View ArticleMade in China? Think Twice
A quick pop quiz: Which of the following countries is the lowest cost manufacturer in Western Europe? Spain Germany United Kingdom If most of you answered Spain and some of you Germany, then its time...
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